TAIPEI- On Sunday (April 16), China launched the "Fengyun-3 G-Star" meteorological satellite from the Jiuquan Satellite Center in Gansu Province, and set up a no-fly zone in the sea and air space about 85 nautical miles north of Taiwan, and the no-fly and no-fly zone lasted for 6 hours .
Although China has set the tone for aerospace activities, observers have analyzed that this may be a disruptive test by the Chinese Space Force, which has posed a serious national security problem to Taiwan. China's Long March 4 Byao 51 carrier rocket successfully ignited and blasted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center at 9:36 on April 16, Beijing time.
China's official media reports on the launch of the satellite mostly focus on the scientific mission of the FY-3 G star, including the detection of related elements such as clouds, water vapor, aerosols, and wind fields, as well as the ability to accurately sense the precipitation of 0.2 mm/hour in the Earth's atmosphere.
Intensity changes to greatly improve the ability to detect space precipitation. China's satellite launch affects flights in Taiwan According to statistics from Taiwan's Ministry of Communications, about 33 flights were affected by the satellite launch, and there was no abnormality in the monitoring of sea transportation.
In addition, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense stated in a written statement on Sunday that the satellite’s orbit passed over the northern seas of Taiwan, and some of the rocket wreckage fell into the warning area of the northern seas of Taiwan, but it did not affect Taiwan’s homeland security.
The international community was originally worried that the CCP would launch missiles at Taiwan on Sunday, escalating its military threat, but in the end it launched a weather satellite, which was a relief to all walks of life, because as early as a few days ago, China had originally notified Taiwan that it would A three-day warning zone was set up in the Taipei Aviation Information Region.
At that time, the Chinese Communist Party had just concluded its Circum-Taiwan military exercise against Taiwan. If the three-day air ban is carried out as scheduled, it will affect 60% to 70% of the flights between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and because Japan is holding the G7 foreign ministers meeting, the flights of many leaders, including US Secretary of State Blinken, will pass through the region.
This triggered a strong backlash from various countries. After protests from all parties, China shortened the time of the no-fly zone from three days to 27 minutes, and all flights only had to be banned from the zone from 9:30 am to 57 am on April 16.
However, the Fujian Provincial Maritime Safety Administration warned that all ships should also avoid entering the no-navigation zone during the six hours from 9:00 am to 3:00 pm on Sunday due to the fear of rocket wreckage falling from satellite launch activities.
For this satellite test launch, Chinese officials have set the tone as a purely aerospace activity. China's aerospace activities have no intention of interfering with the Taiwan Strait? Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on April 14:
"The civil aviation department has issued advance notices and notices on the impact of space activities on the airspace, aiming to remind relevant air traffic service departments and Airspace users should pay attention to the impact of their activities, which is a responsible way to ensure flight safety." "Global Network" and other Chinese official media also quoted anonymous Chinese experts, saying that Taiwan's accusation of satellite launches "interfering with the airspace around the Taiwan Strait" is baseless accusation.
The expert said that Taiwan's "talk wars" are endless, which proves that a series of recent PLA military actions have put "Taiwan independence" elements under pressure.
Professor Lin Tinghui, an expert on Pacific relations and a member of the Taiwan Ocean Council Regarding China’s high-profile no-fly zone to launch weather satellites, Lin Ting-hui, deputy secretary-general of the Taiwan Society of International Law in Taipei, said that the no-fly zone is located in Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone and also overlaps with Japan’s and China’s exclusive economic zones.
He said that China's establishment of restricted areas in the sea and airspace where countries exercise freedom of navigation and free flight violated the Convention on the Law of the Sea, which attracted interference from neighboring countries and international organizations. Later, China made concessions and lowered the no-fly time in the airspace to 27 minutes.
The no-navigation time in the sea area is reduced to 6 hours. But he said the three-day flight ban initially announced by China was clearly a warning for military activities. Expert: The CCP’s no-fly zone was originally designed to launch missiles.
Lin Tinghui told Voice of America: “The rocket wreckage is an excuse. If you (the CCP) want to fish (the wreckage), you also know when it will fall. It is impossible to say (April ) on the 17th and 18th. Judging from the three-day period, it is basically (planned) similar to the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or a missile of the Dongfeng system."
Lin Tinghui said, compared with the military in August last year The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force did not participate in the military exercise, so the CMC may have objections and wanted to express it by launching missiles after the military exercise.
However, in the end, it failed and turned to launching weather satellites instead. Lu Lishi, the former captain of the Taiwan Navy's missile patrol ship in Taipei, also agreed that this is not a purely aerospace activity of the CCP. He believes that the designation of the FIR has the meaning of sovereignty.Therefore, China's original strategy may be to further deny Taiwan's sovereignty through the designation of a no-fly zone at sea or a no-fly zone on the sea.
Lu Lishi, former captain of the Taiwan Navy's missile patrol ship Lu Lishi said that China's methods are unreasonable. For example, China has launch centers in Jiuquan, Gansu, Taiyuan, Shanxi, and Hainan Island, which can successfully push satellites into low-Earth orbit. In other words, China does not necessarily have to launch satellites from Jiuquan.
If it is launched from Shanxi, the satellites can enter the East China Sea faster, and the impact on the Taipei FIR can be minimized. Therefore, he believes that in addition to flight safety, there may be more calculations behind China's satellite launch.
He therefore called on the Civil Aviation Administration of Taiwan to unite with neighboring countries to lodge a protest to China through the International Civil Aviation Organization.
Lu Lishi told Voice of America: "The surrounding countries, whether it is Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, or the relevant FIRs of Southeast Asian routes, should in fact lodge a protest with the International Civil Aviation Organization, and at the triennial ICAO General Assembly Among them, he put forward a review and asked China to make improvements."
The PLA Space Force disrupted the test?
Chen Shimin, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University. (Provided by Chen Shimin)
Chen Shimin, an associate professor at the Political Department of National Taiwan University in Taipei, analyzed that whether it is a military exercise or a satellite launch, China aims to declare to the international community that the surrounding Taiwan Strait belongs to China's inner sea. He said that a few years ago, the CCP’s military aircraft harassing Taiwan was a major event, but in the past year or so, the CCP’s military aircraft have invaded Taiwan’s air defense identification zone almost every day, and even since August last year, they have flown more frequently over the central line of the Taiwan Strait. ".
Chen Shimin told Voice of America: "It (the CCP) took advantage of the opportunity of the rocket launch to place the crash site in Taiwan's air defense identification zone. I think China's aerospace technology is capable of being controlled and can be far away from Taiwan's air defense identification zone or It is a (flight) route with dense flights, but it let it (the rocket) fall into this place.
I personally think that there is a considerable degree of deliberate action. It can be said that the space force itself is harassing Taiwan. This is the first time that it (the People's Liberation Army) has been able to test its air-space integrated combat capability around Taiwan." Chen Shimin called on the Taiwan government to express its stance, solemnly protest and even take countermeasures.
He said that although the Taiwan government is worried about counter-terrorism and escalating cross-strait conflicts, since China's actions have political and military motives, the Taiwan government should think about how to combine the strength of the international community to jointly exert pressure on China.
Liao Hongxiang, a former Honorary Lecturer of the Taiwan War College who now lives in Washington, USA, also criticized the Taiwan government for its weak response and should reflect deeply. He said that Taiwan’s Ministry of Transportation said that only 30-odd flights were affected, and that the routes should be detoured or delayed. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and the National Security Council also seemed to have nothing to do with it. This is a very weird and weak reaction.
China Raises Arms to Threaten Taiwan to Respond Weakly?
Liao Hongxiang, former honorary chair professor of Taiwan War College (Photo provided by: Liao Hongxiang) Liao Hung-hsiang counted the examples in recent years where the Taiwan government has overly downplayed China’s threat to Taiwan.
For example, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Office of the President did not issue any blame for recent French President Macron’s pro-China remarks; secondly, China launched missiles in August last year.
When flying over Taiwan, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense did not issue an air raid warning, but also took the initiative to explain; another example, many drones flew from Xiamen to Kinmen, and the Kinmen defense footage captured by Chinese drone players made Taiwan an international leader.
After the laughing stock, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said slowly that it would shoot down these unidentified aircraft. After Macron’s visit to China, he proposed that Europe should avoid getting involved in the war in the Taiwan Strait.
Although Taiwan’s foreign ministry did not sternly condemn it, it immediately asked the French government for clarification and received assurances from the French government that its position of “supporting the maintenance of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait” has not changed. . As for the incident of Chinese missiles flying over Taiwan, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense came forward to confirm it after the CCP’s military exercises were over. A
ccording to it, it decided not to release it because it “judged that the missile landed on the sea and did not pose a threat to the ground.” Regarding the suspected Chinese drones in Kinmen to search for military information, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said during her inspection tour of Penghu at the end of August last year, "The more provocative the enemy army is, the more calm it is.
She also said that she had ordered the Ministry of National Defense to "take necessary and strong countermeasures in a timely manner to safeguard the security of the national airspace."
After Tsai Ing-wen made his statement, the Taiwan Army's defense headquarters in Kinmen drove away four drone sorties with live ammunition in the next two days. However, Liao Hongxiang still criticized Taiwan's ruling party's overly downplaying of China's threat, which is very different from the 1996 Taiwan Strait missile crisis when Taiwan's former President Lee Teng-hui had 18 sets of scripts to deal with the People's Liberation Army.
He said that the Taiwan government has lowered the people's vigilance and defenses internally, which is tantamount to helping the People's Liberation Army reduce the cost of invading Taiwan.
It also misleads the international community and creates an impression that Taiwan itself has nothing to do with it. Against Taiwan. He emphasized that the CCP’s launch of a weather satellite is definitely not just a matter of transportation.
Liao Hongxiang told Voice of America: "This has created in the international community 'Taiwan is its (CCP's) forbidden territory, it can take whatever it wants, and it will block it if it wants to block it' (impression). Before President Tsai Ing-wen met with (House Speaker) McCarthy, the United States It has already held joint exercises with Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea, and also held exercises with the Philippines. This is how the United States responds.
Relatively speaking, Taiwan is belated. China has many steps and many steps to deal with Taiwan. If Taiwan does not respond appropriately, it will be very detrimental to national security."
